France v Morocco – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (9 July 2026)

The World Cup quarter-finals take place this week. The first of these will see France take on Morocco on Thursday in Boston at 4.00 pm local time. The match will be played at Gillette Stadium, which is actually in Foxborough, some 40 kilometres from Boston.

The bookmakers have France as clear favourites to reach the semi-finals. In fact, Kylian Mbappé’s side are also the hot favourites to win the World Cup.

France remain the best

The French team continues to prove that, so far, it is the best side in the tournament. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll win the World Cup, but the bookmakers are increasingly tipping them as clear favourites for the title.

As a result, they go into this tie with very favourable odds, with a win paying out at around 1.60.

They go into this match having knocked out Paraguay in the round of 16, in a game marked by the Paraguayans’ aggressive play and the poor refereeing that France suffered.

The match ended with three yellow cards for France and none for Paraguay – a result that is difficult to explain given the rough play displayed by the South American side for much of the match.

France eventually won 1–0, following a penalty won by Doué, who turned the match around after coming on as a substitute.

Morocco suffered a major setback

Morocco beat Canada 0–3 in the round of 16, although the scoreline is rather misleading. Surprisingly, Canada were the better side for long stretches and deserved far more before Ounahi’s 0–1 goal in the 50th minute.

In the first half, Canada managed to dominate the Africans, preventing them from leaving their own half for long stretches. Chaid’s absence in defence was keenly felt, making it very difficult for Morocco to build from the back.

The worst news of the match for Mohamed Ouahbi’s side was the injury to their first-choice striker, and recent Bayern Munich signing, Ismael Saibari. He was forced off with an injury in the 21st minute and will be unavailable for this match.

The striker, alongside Hakimi, had been the team’s most influential player, so his absence is a major blow ahead of facing a side of France’s calibre.

It is worth remembering that Morocco had already lost Abde, a Betis player, ahead of the World Cup. With these two absences combined, the Moroccan attack is severely depleted for such a demanding match.

France v Morocco Prediction

The bookmakers already have France as clear favourites, but I still see value in their odds, given the circumstances and what we’ve seen from both teams during the tournament.

Saibari’s absence is a major blow, as his replacement lacks the quality and ability to stretch the defence. This comes on top of the absence of Abde, who missed out on the World Cup altogether, meaning Morocco will go into this match without two of their key attacking players. Added to this is the uncertainty surrounding Chaid Riad in defence, who was already replaced by Halhal in the previous match; Halhal lost possession on several occasions, which against an attack like France’s would probably have resulted in goals. France won’t let slip what Canada let slip.

Furthermore, the Moroccan midfield is raising far more doubts for me than I had anticipated before the tournament. The promising start made by Bouaddi has faded, and he has ended up coming across as too soft, disappearing for long stretches of matches. Both Ounahi and Brahim are highly talented players, but they are too inconsistent to provide continuity to the team’s play.

Against a side like France, I believe all these issues will ultimately prove too much of a burden.

For all these reasons, I see value in the bets in favour of France. From a straight win to the -1 Asian handicap, which I find particularly interesting. With that handicap, if France win by just one goal, we’d get our stake back, whilst a victory by two goals or more would mean the bet is a winner.