England vs Japan Prediction (Nations Championship) Odds and Bets 14.11.2026

England -22.5 points is our main England vs Japan prediction for Saturday’s Nations Championship clash at Twickenham. Steve Borthwick’s side scored seven tries in their 45-22 victory over Australia, while Japan missed 42 tackles during their 28-21 defeat to Wales. England have won their last five meetings with Japan, four by at least 22 points.

England have bounced back strongly from their July defeat against South Africa, beating Fiji 73-8, Argentina 31-24 and Australia 45-22. Against the Wallabies, Jamie George, Ollie Chessum, Joe Heyes, Jack van Poortvliet and Ben Spencer all crossed the line, while Henry Pollock added two tries from the wing. Fin Smith directed an attack that combined powerful driving mauls with quicker movement into wider areas.

However, injuries have disrupted Borthwick’s preparations. Immanuel Feyi-Waboso and Tom Curry are out for the remainder of the autumn. Chessum, Seb Atkinson and George Furbank will also miss Japan, although they could return against New Zealand. England have enough squad depth to cope, but changes to their combinations could influence Saturday’s winning margin.

Japan pushed Wales throughout their 28-21 defeat in Cardiff, scoring three converted tries and enjoying 59% possession. Eddie Jones’s side also won all 14 of their lineouts, showing they can sustain attacking pressure against established Northern Hemisphere opponents. Defensively, however, Japan missed 42 tackles and struggled when Wales moved the ball wide.

They have conceded 116 points in four Nations Championship matches, including 42 against France and 36 against Ireland. Riku Kitahara continues to develop at fly-half, while Warner Dearns and Ben Gunter provide physicality in the pack. Jones knows Twickenham well from his seven years coaching England, but containing the home side’s powerful forwards will be a demanding task.

• England’s forward dominance: Driving mauls and close-range carries helped produce seven tries against Australia.
• Japan’s defensive weaknesses: Their 42 missed tackles against Wales are particularly concerning ahead of this fixture.
• Head-to-head advantage: England beat Japan 59-14 and 52-17 in 2024, covering both proposed handicap lines.
• Squad changes: Five England players are unavailable, making Borthwick’s final selection important for assessing larger handicaps.
• Tournament motivation: England are still chasing the Northern Hemisphere’s top spot, with New Zealand visiting the following weekend.