Tunisia v Japan – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (21 June 2026)

The Estadio de Monterrey is set to host a crucial clash for the outcome of Group F. The situations facing both teams heading into this second matchday could not be more different. Tunisia are coming off the back of a crushing defeat in their opening match, losing 5–1 to Sweden – a result that led to the immediate sacking of their manager and the emergency appointment of Hervé Renard to try and put out the fire. For their part, the Japanese side made a very favourable impression in their opening match, scraping a valuable 2-2 draw against the Netherlands in a thrilling encounter where they showed they have more than enough quality to compete with anyone.

Hajime Moriyasu knows he has a golden opportunity to put his side on track for a place in the round of 16. The Japanese side stands out for its cohesive unit, its relentless pace and an enviable technical arsenal in the final third, with players with European experience such as Takefusa Kubo and Daichi Kamada pulling the strings. Having witnessed Tunisia’s defensive frailty against Sweden, the Blue Samurai’s game plan will be to dominate possession, stretch the pitch and wear down the Africans with swift transitions. Quick ball movement will be key to breaking down the predictable defensive wall that Tunisia’s new manager is likely to set up.

Tunisia, bottom of the group and with their morale severely dented, face this clash as if it were a proper final. The arrival of Renard on the bench could provide them with a morale boost and greater tactical discipline, but the French manager has had very little time to work on the defensive system. His plan will involve defending very deep, pressing hard in midfield with Hannibal Mejbri and trying to cause damage with Elias Achouri’s pace on the counter-attack.

The difference in momentum and collective quality is clear. Despite Tunisia’s pride and the ‘revitalising effect’ on their bench, Japan arrive with their machinery well-oiled, brimming with confidence and an impeccable record in head-to-head encounters against this opponent. Tunisia’s need to go for the points will leave gaps at the back, which Japan’s pace and precision will be able to exploit. I predict a clear victory for the Asian side in a lively, goal-filled match.