Paraguay v Australia – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (26/06/2026)

This is the match that will decide Group C, a group the United States have clearly dominated over the first two matchdays thanks to victories against the very teams set to face each other this Thursday in Santa Clara. The South Americans struggled immensely in their opening match, making mistakes uncharacteristic of their performances in the qualifying phase and ending up on the receiving end of a heavy 4-1 defeat. For their part, the ‘Aussies’ started with a fine win against Turkey, but were unable to pose a threat to Pochettino’s side and ended up losing 2–0. Who will secure second place, which would see them face Iran in the next round?

La Albirroja are clearly improving as the tournament progresses. Following the initial slip-up mentioned earlier, we saw a much more determined performance from Gustavo Alfaro’s side. Enciso began to show precision and make a real impact in attack, whilst Galaza on the left demonstrated his quality by scoring the only goal of the match, which knocked the Turks out of the 2026 World Cup. But the standout performance came from the defence; Montella’s men tried all sorts of approaches, but the backline of Alderete and Gustavo Gómez managed to repel everything. If they can replicate that performance, they’ll be able to take their side through to the round of 32.

There are reasons to believe in Tony Popovic’s side. Firstly, because they are increasingly fielding players from top European leagues: Bos and Circati in defence (Feyenoord and Parma) and Mohamed Touré in attack for a Norwich side aiming to return to the Premier League are prime examples. And secondly, because of the competitiveness they have shown in major tournaments. At Qatar 2022, they qualified with 6 points, knocking out Denmark and Tunisia, and at the Asian Cup, a strong South Korean side had to go to extra time to see them off in the quarter-finals. With excellent organisation, a powerful aerial game and direct play, they could spring a surprise.

We’re looking at a match that’s expected to be fairly evenly matched, with Paraguay focusing on defence and biding their time. A tactic that has served them very well in the South American qualifiers. Now it’s a World Cup and the context is different, but against an Australia side that at times lacks the spark to open the scoring, we see Alfaro’s lads as potential winners. The prediction is quite a risk, but the odds are incredibly high for a CONMEBOL side that already knows what it takes to play in decisive matches. For that reason, we’re going for a 1.