Germany v Paraguay – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (29/06/2026)

Germany and Paraguay face off in a knockout tie which, on paper, looks to favour the German side. However, Paraguay’s style of play and some concerns raised by the Germans during the group stage suggest this could be a much tougher match than the odds might suggest.

Germany

Julian Nagelsmann’s side finished top of their group in the group stage, although impressions shifted as the matches progressed.

Their debut was spectacular, with a 7-1 thrashing of Curaçao. This was followed by a much harder-fought victory over Ivory Coast. Germany came from behind to win 2-1, but for long stretches of the match they were outplayed by their opponents and needed a goal in added time to secure the three points.

On the final matchday, they lost 2-1 to Ecuador. It is true that the result must be viewed in context, as Germany had already mathematically secured top spot and Ecuador were playing for their lives. Even so, it was a match that raised some doubts regarding intensity and team performance.

The good news for this tie is the return of a key player in Nathaniel Brown.

Paraguay

Paraguay have had a very unusual group stage. They began with a heavy 4-1 defeat to the United States, in a match where they struggled immensely, particularly during the first half.

However, they bounced back with a highly commendable victory over Turkey. They scored very early on and managed to hold out for the entire match, including a whole second half played with ten men. Subsequently, they could only manage a draw against Australia, putting in a rather poor performance.

Despite this, Gustavo Alfaro’s side remain recognisable. They defend well, compete for every ball and are comfortable in tight matches. Julio Enciso is their main attacking threat, supported by key players such as Miguel Almirón, Gustavo Gómez and Juan Cáceres.

However, Paraguay arrive with some significant issues. Diego Gómez will miss the match through suspension and Omar Alderete is carrying a niggling injury.

Our prediction: Germany to win and under 4.5 goals (odds 1.62)

Germany have more than enough reasons to be considered favourites. Paraguay will try to take the match to the terrain that suits them best: a slow tempo, a tightly packed defensive block and few spaces. Furthermore, the Paraguayans’ attacking statistics perfectly reflect their difficulties in creating danger. In their three group stage matches, they produced a mere 1.04 expected goals, a very low figure at this stage of the tournament.

If the match goes according to plan, I can’t see Paraguay finding the back of the net. Germany should be in control, although they’ll probably need patience to break down a very compact defence. I reckon the Germans will win without a big scoreline.