Argentina v Cape Verde – predictions and odds – 2026 World Cup (3 July 2026)

Argentina arrive in Miami as world champions, with Messi in a form that has already gone down in history. Five goals in the group stage – a hat-trick against Algeria and a brace against Austria – have made him the all-time leading goalscorer at World Cups, with 18 goals. Scaloni has built a team that functions as a unit, but when Messi gets going, it becomes something completely different. The problem – if you can call it that – is that La Pulga is 38 years old and Scaloni has managed his playing time carefully, saving him for the moments that matter. This is one of them.

Opposing them is the most heart-warming story of the tournament. Cape Verde are making their World Cup debut and have done so in the most unexpected way possible: three draws, including a historic 0–0 against Spain in which Vozinha, their 40-year-old goalkeeper, made seven saves and was named the match’s MVP. Against Uruguay, they conceded two goals but managed to fight back to draw 2–2, showing they have character and that Kevin Pina, who scored the equaliser, is a player capable of causing problems for any defence when he receives the ball in the right circumstances.

And therein lies the key to this match. Argentina are virtually guaranteed to score with Messi and co., but Cape Verde are not a side that sit back and play for a draw. They have shown they can compete against the big teams, that they possess genuine attacking threat and that, when given space on the break, they are capable of capitalising on it. The Argentine defence is not infallible, and in a knockout tie with all the adrenaline typical of the round of 32, any lapse in concentration could end up in the back of the net.

Scaloni will win this match, but the question is whether Cape Verde will leave Miami without leaving their mark on the scoreboard. After what we saw in the group stage, there are plenty of reasons to think not. The Albiceleste will see the match through, but Cape Verde have too much pride and too much quality to leave Miami without scoring at least one goal.