2026 Canadian Grand Prix: odds and picks 24.05.2026

The Canadian Grand Prix comes at a very delicate moment in the 2026 season, with Mercedes setting the pace and Kimi Antonelli and George Russell emerging as the real benchmark in the championship. Montreal is no ordinary circuit: it combines long straights, heavy braking, aggressive kerbs and walls very close to the track, exactly the kind of scenario that separates the stable cars from the merely fast ones.

The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve tends to reward traction, confidence under braking and the ability to warm up the tyres without destroying them. The smooth tarmac, the track’s rapid evolution and cooler-than-usual temperatures add to the uncertainty. Rain does not appear to be the main factor for the race, but any change in conditions could open up a dangerous strategic window.

Information: date, schedule and where to watch the GP

• Circuit: Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve, Montreal.
• Race date: Sunday 24 May
• Qualifying: Saturday 23 May

Odds on the winner of the Canadian Grand Prix

Latest on the podium favourites

The three names with the strongest case for a podium finish are Kimi Antonelli, George Russell and Lando Norris. Mercedes arrives with an advantage in pure performance and confidence, whilst McLaren has closed the gap enough to force the Brackley-based team to avoid mistakes in strategy, starts and tyre management.

Kimi Antonelli: current situation and prospects

Antonelli arrives in Canada as the World Championship leader and with the sense that he is racing through the ranks at a pace uncharacteristic of his experience. His recent victories have changed the tone of the season: he is no longer just a prospect under Mercedes’ wing, but a genuine title contender with pace, maturity and an enormous ability to adapt to high-pressure situations.

Montreal should suit him well if he keeps his braking clean and avoids overheating the rear axle on slow-corner exits. The big question mark lies in the margin he might have over Russell, a team-mate who knows this circuit very well and has already demonstrated a special knack for getting the car in the right place in qualifying. Antonelli has the pace to win, but in Canada it’s not enough just to be fast: you have to survive kerbs, walls, safety car periods and temperature changes.

George Russell: current situation and prospects

Russell arrives in Montreal with a clear opportunity to close the gap in the championship. His single-lap pace on this circuit puts him right back in the thick of the fight, and the memory of his 2025 victory carries significant weight in the analysis. He is a particularly sharp driver when the car requires precision under braking, which is key at Turn 10 and the final chicane.

Russell’s great strength is that he usually builds his weekends from qualifying. If he starts at the front, he can manage pace, battery and tyres with great composure. The risk is that Mercedes hasn’t always been perfect at the start, and Canada punishes any loss of position because it forces drivers to run in dirty air and attack in areas demanding heavy braking. If he avoids trouble on the first lap, his chances of victory are very strong.

Lando Norris: current situation and chances

Norris arrives as the main contender to break Mercedes’ one-two. McLaren has been closing the gap and the Briton performs very well on circuits where the driver can make a difference in corner entry, traction and tyre management. Montreal isn’t the most comfortable track for chasing a superior car, but it is one of those that punishes the favourites’ mistakes the most.

His best chance will be to stay close from the start and force Mercedes to cover their strategy. If the race settles without a safety car, he will need a bit more pace than he has shown so far to win outright. However, with a safety car period, light rain or unexpected tyre degradation, Norris could become a real threat. He has a clear case for the podium; for victory, he needs the weekend to go slightly wrong for Mercedes.

Track conditions and weather forecast

The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve measures 4.361 kilometres and consists of 70 laps. It is a track with relatively low downforce, very much a ‘stop-and-go’ circuit, featuring long accelerations, heavy braking and chicanes where the car must ride the kerbs well without losing its line. Traction out of slow corners and braking stability are more important than pure downforce in fast corners.

The tyre range is soft, comprising C3, C4 and C5 compounds, and this could make thermal management crucial if graining occurs. The tarmac, recently resurfaced, is smooth and not very abrasive, but it changes quickly as it is hardly used outside the F1 weekend. Mild temperatures are expected for the race, around 20-21 degrees, with variable skies and a low risk of persistent rain. If there are a few isolated drops, the window for intermediate tyres may be brief but very dangerous.

Comparison of leading teams

Mercedes arrives as the team to beat. It has won the first races of the year and in Canada is introducing a package of upgrades designed to consolidate its advantage, not only in aerodynamics but also in the car’s efficiency and handling. Its strength lies in consistency: two drivers at the front, good qualifying pace and a base that works on different circuits.

McLaren is the rival that has made the most progress. Norris and Piastri have shown that the car is no longer far off, especially when grip increases and tyre management comes into play. They still need to close the gap in pure pace, but Canada could offer them opportunities if Mercedes struggles with starts or strategy.

Red Bull appears as the third contender due to Verstappen’s talent and track record in Montreal, although the RB22 does not inspire the same confidence. If the car bounces, loses stability or fails to warm the tyres properly, their margin is significantly reduced.

Latest results at the Canadian Grand Prix

Canada has traditionally favoured drivers strong on the brakes and cars with good straight-line efficiency. Max Verstappen dominated the 2022, 2023 and 2024 editions, confirming that Red Bull had a firm grasp of the blend of top speed, traction and race management required by Montreal. In 2023, he won ahead of Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton; in 2024, he triumphed again in a more chaotic race, with Norris and Russell hot on his heels.

The 2025 race broke the trend: George Russell won from pole position in a Mercedes, ahead of Verstappen and Antonelli. That result is significant because it suggests Mercedes has already found a highly competitive performance window here ahead of the new season. Historically, Mercedes has also had fond memories of this circuit, with Hamilton setting the standard for years. Ferrari is usually a threat over a single lap, but has recently struggled to convert pace into victory.

Summary of the key factors for this GP